Instructor information

Module leader: Prof. Massimo Guarascio

Course information

ECTS: 6 credits 

Status: Compulsory 

Semester: 4 

Hours: 30/18 (lectures/exercises) 

Link: course page

Objectives

The course aims to provide quantitative methods for safety analysis of complex systems according to all the in force regulations. Specific aims:

• Theoretical concepts to support the definition of safety goals and criteria of '"acceptability" and "compliance"
• Role of geo-historical-statistical data set: - to measure the accuracy of assumptions and parameters - to evaluate the effectiveness of systems, subsystems and equipments
• Role of models in Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Constitutive and organizational elements of complex systems
• Types of system and risk factors - Statistical analysis of accidents and injuries data - Evaluation of empirical values of rates, conditional rates and empirical indicators of damage - Probabilistic analysis of cause-effect conditions (Fault Tree Analysis) representing the relationships between primary causes and incidental events - Probabilistic models of damage - Definition of safety targets - Cost-benefit analysis and Policy-price

Syllabus outline

• Characteristics of Quantitative Probabilistic Risk Analysis: - Systemic approach to analyse sequences and interrelations in potential incidents or accidents, considering the logic chain of events - Quantification of risks establishing the basis of a performance-based approach for the assessment of safety standards
• Event Tree Analysis (ETA): - Estimation of the probabilities of all the final consequence events
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA): - Statistical inference techniques for the estimation of the probability of the initiating events
• Risk Evaluation: - Acceptability and safety criteria.
• Risk and Safety Management: - Effectiveness and also cost-effectiveness of different safety measures - Frequency and consequence analysis of the scenarios evaluation

Essential reading list

• Lecture notes and exercises provided by the instructor
• S. Bernstein, R. Bernstein. Calcolo delle probabilità. Mc Graw-Hill
• A. H-S. Ang, W. H. Tang Probability concepts in engineering planning and decision. Vol. II Decision Risk and Reliability, Wiley 1990